🌡️ Chapter 06 · Topic 05 · Climate Change

IPCC & Paris Agreement

IPCC structure and Assessment Reports, UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, Paris Agreement 2015, NDCs, COP meetings, India’s Panchamrit and net zero 2070 — complete UPSC & PSC notes.

🔬 IPCC — Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Established in 1988 by UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland
Not a research body — it assesses and synthesises existing scientific literature on climate change
Provides policymakers with regular scientific assessments of climate change, its impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation
Membership: 195 member countries
Won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 (jointly with Al Gore)

📌 IPCC Structure: Three Working Groups: WG I — Physical Science Basis; WG II — Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; WG III — Mitigation of Climate Change. Plus a Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Reports are approved line-by-line by government representatives — ensuring scientific credibility and policy relevance.

📋 IPCC Assessment Reports

Report	Year	Key Finding
AR1 (First)	1990	Confirmed human-caused warming; led to UNFCCC negotiations
AR2 (Second)	1995	“Discernible human influence on global climate”; led to Kyoto Protocol
AR3 (Third)	2001	Warming “very likely” human-caused; projected 1.4–5.8°C rise by 2100
AR4 (Fourth)	2007	Warming “unequivocal”; human cause “very likely” (>90%); Nobel Peace Prize
AR5 (Fifth)	2013–14	Human cause “extremely likely” (>95%); 1.5°C and 2°C targets highlighted
AR6 (Sixth)	2021–22	“Unequivocal” human cause; 1.1°C warming already; 1.5°C likely by early 2030s; “code red for humanity”

⭐ AR6 Key Findings (2021–22): Human influence has warmed the climate at an “unprecedented rate.” Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2,000 years. Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. The 1.5°C threshold could be crossed in the early 2030s.

🌍 UNFCCC — Framework for Climate Action

UNFCCC = United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Adopted at the Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro, 1992; entered into force 1994
197 parties (near-universal membership)
Secretariat: Bonn, Germany
Objective: stabilise GHG concentrations at a level that prevents dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
Established the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) — developed countries bear greater responsibility for historical emissions
Divided countries into: Annex I (developed + economies in transition), Annex II (developed, must provide finance), Non-Annex I (developing countries including India)
Annual Conference of Parties (COP) meetings to review progress

📜 Kyoto Protocol (1997)

Adopted at COP3, Kyoto, Japan, 1997; entered into force 2005
First legally binding treaty with emission reduction targets for developed countries (Annex I)
First commitment period: 2008–2012 — Annex I countries to reduce emissions by average 5.2% below 1990 levels
Second commitment period: 2013–2020 (Doha Amendment) — 18% reduction below 1990 levels
USA never ratified; Canada withdrew in 2011; developing countries (India, China) had no binding targets
Introduced three flexibility mechanisms:
- Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) — developed countries fund emission reduction projects in developing countries and earn carbon credits
- Joint Implementation (JI) — emission reduction projects between Annex I countries
- Emissions Trading — countries trade emission allowances

📌 CDM & India: India was one of the largest hosts of CDM projects globally. CDM projects in India included renewable energy, energy efficiency, and waste management. India earned significant carbon credits (Certified Emission Reductions — CERs) from these projects. CDM was replaced by Article 6 mechanisms under the Paris Agreement.

🌿 Paris Agreement (2015)

The Paris Agreement was adopted at COP21, Paris, December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016. It is the landmark global climate agreement that replaced the Kyoto Protocol.

Temperature goal: Limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit to 1.5°C
Adaptation goal: Enhance adaptive capacity and climate resilience
Finance goal: Developed countries to mobilise $100 billion per year by 2020 for developing countries (New Collective Quantified Goal — NCQG being negotiated)
NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) — each country sets its own climate targets; submitted every 5 years; must be progressively ambitious (ratchet mechanism)
Net zero — global emissions to reach net zero in the second half of the 21st century
Loss and Damage — recognition of climate impacts beyond adaptation; Loss and Damage Fund established at COP27 (2022)
Unlike Kyoto, Paris Agreement applies to all countries (not just developed)
USA withdrew under Trump (2017), rejoined under Biden (2021)

⭐ Paris Agreement vs Kyoto Protocol: Kyoto = top-down, legally binding targets only for developed countries. Paris = bottom-up, NDCs set by each country, applies to all. Paris is more inclusive but relies on voluntary ambition. The “ratchet mechanism” requires NDCs to be updated every 5 years with increasing ambition — the key enforcement tool.

🌐 Key COP Meetings

COP	Year & Location	Key Outcome
COP1	1995, Berlin	Berlin Mandate — Annex I countries to negotiate binding targets
COP3	1997, Kyoto	Kyoto Protocol adopted
COP13	2007, Bali	Bali Action Plan — roadmap for post-2012 agreement
COP15	2009, Copenhagen	Copenhagen Accord — non-binding; 2°C target; $100 billion finance pledge
COP17	2011, Durban	Durban Platform — mandate to negotiate new agreement for all countries
COP21	2015, Paris	Paris Agreement adopted
COP26	2021, Glasgow	Glasgow Climate Pact; India’s Panchamrit; 1.5°C reaffirmed; coal phase-down
COP27	2022, Sharm el-Sheikh	Loss and Damage Fund established
COP28	2023, Dubai	First Global Stocktake; “transition away” from fossil fuels; tripling renewables by 2030

🇮🇳 India’s Climate Commitments

India’s Panchamrit (COP26, Glasgow, 2021)

500 GW non-fossil fuel electricity capacity by 2030
50% of cumulative electric power from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030
Reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 (from 2005 levels)
Create additional carbon sink of 2.5–3 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent through forest and tree cover by 2030
Achieve net zero emissions by 2070

📌 India’s NDC (Updated 2022): India submitted its updated NDC in August 2022, incorporating the Panchamrit targets. Key update: emissions intensity reduction target raised from 33–35% to 45% by 2030. Non-fossil fuel electricity target raised from 40% to 50% by 2030. India is one of the few G20 countries whose NDC is rated “2°C compatible” by Climate Action Tracker.

India’s Climate Achievements

India’s renewable energy capacity has grown rapidly — solar power capacity increased from ~2.6 GW (2014) to over 80 GW (2024)
India is the 3rd largest renewable energy producer globally
India launched the International Solar Alliance (ISA) with France at COP21 (2015) — 120+ member countries
Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) — launched by India at COP26
India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) — 8 national missions including Solar Mission, Green India Mission, Water Mission
India achieved its 2030 non-fossil fuel electricity target of 40% 9 years ahead of schedule (by 2021)

💰 Climate Finance

$100 billion/year pledge by developed countries to developing countries — first promised at Copenhagen (2009); not fully met until 2022
Green Climate Fund (GCF) — established under UNFCCC; main fund for climate finance to developing countries; HQ: Incheon, South Korea
Adaptation Fund — supports adaptation projects in developing countries; funded by 2% levy on CDM projects
New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) — post-2025 climate finance goal being negotiated; developing countries demand $1 trillion/year
Loss and Damage Fund — established at COP27 (2022); for countries most vulnerable to climate impacts; operationalised at COP28 (2023)

⭐ Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR): The principle that all countries share responsibility for addressing climate change, but developed countries bear greater responsibility due to their historical emissions and greater capacity. India consistently advocates for CBDR in climate negotiations. Developed countries are responsible for ~80% of cumulative historical CO₂ emissions despite having only ~15% of world population.

✅ Revision Checklist — IPCC & Paris Agreement

✅ IPCC = established 1988 = UNEP + WMO = Geneva = 195 members
✅ IPCC = assesses climate science (not research body) = Nobel Peace Prize 2007
✅ AR6 (2021–22) = “unequivocal” human cause = 1.1°C warming = 1.5°C by early 2030s
✅ UNFCCC = 1992, Rio = 197 parties = Bonn secretariat = CBDR principle
✅ Kyoto Protocol = 1997 = binding targets for developed countries only = CDM, JI, ET
✅ CDM = developed countries fund projects in developing countries = earn carbon credits
✅ Paris Agreement = COP21, 2015 = well below 2°C; aim 1.5°C = all countries
✅ NDCs = Nationally Determined Contributions = updated every 5 years = ratchet mechanism
✅ Paris Agreement = entered into force 4 November 2016
✅ COP26 Glasgow (2021) = Glasgow Climate Pact = coal phase-down = India’s Panchamrit
✅ COP27 Sharm el-Sheikh (2022) = Loss and Damage Fund established
✅ COP28 Dubai (2023) = First Global Stocktake = transition away from fossil fuels
✅ India’s Panchamrit = 500 GW renewable; 50% non-fossil electricity; 45% emissions intensity reduction; net zero 2070
✅ India’s net zero target = 2070 (not 2050 like most developed countries)
✅ International Solar Alliance = India + France = COP21 = 120+ members
✅ Green Climate Fund = Incheon, South Korea = main climate finance fund
✅ $100 billion/year = developed to developing countries = Copenhagen pledge
✅ CBDR = Common But Differentiated Responsibilities = India’s key negotiating position